Nevertheless, despite my limited knowledge on the matter and the lack of support I received from my colleagues on the island, I have decided to write this piece because the political climate in the Dominican Republic has been ripe for analysis in the past weeks, even for those who do not know much about this country. In this post, I will provide an overview of what has been occurring in the past few weeks in this Caribbean nation, and then I will proceed with an analysis of these events.
Power-Hungry Ghosts of the Dominican past Visit Leonel
On March 27, Dominican President Leonel Fernandez hinted that he might seek a third consecutive term in office, despite constitutional limitations which prevent him from running again in the next elections. The current constitution, which was adopted in January 2010, limits presidents to two consecutive four-year terms; however, it allows presidents to serve again after one election cycle.
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| President Leonel Fernandez and me - 2007 |
For weeks, Fernandez’s party (Dominical Liberation Party - PLD) leaders had lobbied for constitutional reform that would allow him to run again in 2012. Additionally, they collected 2.2 million signatures of people petitioning his re-election, and then presented them to Fernandez for his consideration two weeks ago. After being presented with these signatures, Fernandez stated that he is and has been a soldier of his party, and as a result, the party should be the one to determine whether he seeks re-election. A decision on whether he would run for president again was expected before April 10th, when the Dominican Liberation Party had stated it would announce its presidential candidates.
However, after much lobbying for constitutional reform from his party leaders, Fernandez announced on April 8th that he will not seek a new presidential term in 2012. He did not state, however, whether he would run for office again in 2016. Fernandez was first elected to office in 1996, and later in 2004 and 2008. In 2008, he was elected president with nearly 54% of votes.
After declaring that he will not seek a third consecutive term in office, his wife, Margarita Cedeño, announced her candidacy for the PLD’s internal presidential elections. Her candidacy was approved by the party last week. Other PLD candidates for the party’s internal elections, which will take place on June 26, include Vice President Rafael Alburqueque, former candidate Danilo Medina, former senators Francisco Domínguez and José Tomás Pérez, former Minister of Interior Franklyi Almeyda, and political leader Radhamés Segura. Whoever wins will face Hipolito Mejia in the 2012 elections.
Fernandez’s decision in historical perspective
Fernandez’s decision and its outcomes need to be understood from a historical as well as from a contemporary perspective in order to fully recognize their significance. As is the case in many other Latin American nations, the history of the Dominican Republic has been plagued with political instability and abuses of power. Additionally, given Hispaniola’s strategic location in the hemisphere, confict in this country has almost always resulted in American intervention - something which has further complicated this country’s political situation.
From 1916 to 1924, U.S. marines occupied the Dominican Republic and created a National Guard to fight guerrilla bands. In 1922, an agreement between U.S. and Dominican leaders led to the formation of a provisional government. Two years later in 1924, elections were held and Horacio Velazquez became president. He completed a peaceful term in office, with high foreign investment rates. However, in 1929, he made a mistake that has not been uncommon among Latin American leaders: he tried to amend the constitution so he could run for office again.
As a result, a rebellion ensued and Rafael Leonidas Trujillo, one of the most brilliant disciples of the American occupation force, ran for president in the 1930 elections. With total backing of the National Guard, he won the elections with 95 percent of votes. Soon, he made sure none of his opponents were in his way, and thus, he mercilessly ruled the country until his assassination in 1961.
In 1962, there were free elections and Juan Bosch was elected president. He instituted an agrarian reform to redistribute Trujillo’s landholdings. The traditional elites closely associated this reform with actions taken in Castro’s Cuba; as a result, they worked with the military to oust Bosch in 1963. A countermovement attempted to restore him as president, and this led to a conflict between the armed forces and pro-Bosch groups (mainly students and workers), resulting in civil war. The fight intensified and the United States became fearful of another Cuba, so once again, it took over the Dominican Republic in April 1965.
The United States formed an interim government, and eventually, elections were held in 1966. Victory went to the United States’ favorite candidate and ex-Trujillo official, Joaquin Balaguer. During his administration, major economic developments occurred in part as a result of increased aid from the United States, which climbed to more than $132 million in 1968. Balaguer continued as president until 1978, when his opponents won the elections.
As in many other Latin American countries during this period, a deteriorating trade imbalance and growing external debt led to an internal crisis just as the country was preparing for elections in 1986. Once again, Balaguer ran for president and was victorious. In 1990, at the age of eighty-three, Balaguer won the elections again and vowed to stay in power for the remainder of his life. In 1994, Balaguer was triumphant again, but upon taking office, he agreed to reduce his term to two years and not to run again (Nevertheless, he ran again in 2000 at the age ninety-three, but only obtained 23% of the votes, and thus, was not able to make it to the runoff).
Leonel Fernandez won the elections in 1996; alternatively, Hipolito Mejia won the elections in 2000. The latter unsuccessfully ran for president in 2004 and lost to Leonel Fernandez by a wide margin. Fernandez has been President of the Dominican Republic since 2004.
Democracy a la Dominicana
The caudillo figure predominated in much of Latin America from the late 19th to the mid 20th century. However, their legacy is still present today, and the Dominican Republic is a clear example of this. Although there have been free elections for over 40 years in the Dominican Republic, custom – that is, the Dominican population’s continued experience of having a strongman leading their country for long periods of time – has led the democratic process in this Caribbean nation.
Thus, the Dominican’s will to re-elect Fernandez represents, up to a certain extent, a populace’s traditional behavior, rather than a desire to re-elect someone who has turned their country 180 degrees; that is, the status quo is preferred over change. Again, it seems like in this Caribbean nation custom leads the democratic process, bringing irony to the constitutional reforms of the 1990s which were introduced to prevent individuals from holding office over and over again. Hence I question, up to what extent can a constitution alter a populace’s traditional behavior, when it has not truly been inspired by them, but by the political elites?
Also, although it is true that Fernandez’s reluctance to run for a third consecutive term is noble in light that a constitutional reform that would have allowed him to do this was not far from likely, it is important to point out that respecting the constitution is not a president’s decision, but a duty. Furthermore, I also question how democratic his decision is, given the fact that his wife wants to run for president. This contagious disease, which started spreading with the Kirchners in Argentina, has demonstrated that first, presidents’ wives are not prepared to govern, and second, if elected, their husbands are truly the ones governing their countries (And I don’t mean to be sexist here!).
Finally, as of now, there is a 50% probability that my premise - that Dominicans like having the same people as presidents over and over again - is true, given that whoever wins the internal PLD elections will have to face Hipolito Mejia, who was president from 2000 to 2004. Alternatively, if Margarita Cedeño (Fernandez’s wife) wins the internal PLD elections, then the probability of my premise is100%, and a cycle that has been present in Dominican politics for over 80 years will remain unchanged.
